UFC 289 takes place this Saturday at Rogers Arena in Vancouver and in the main event, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes puts her title on the line against Irene Aldana... but we’re not here to talk about that one, because the co-main event is one of the best fights of the summer.
Former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira looks to bounce back after losing to Islam Makhachev when he takes on Beneil Dariush in what could be a No. 1 contender’s matchup. Dariush certainly will get a title shot with a win at the very least, so let’s take a look at who gets the job done on Saturday and how.
Paths to Victory for Charles Oliveira at UFC 289
Charles Oliveira is back, which means here comes the chaos.
The last time we were dissecting Oliveira was for UFC 280 and his battle against Islam Makhachev, and in many ways, he has a similar matchup on his hands this time around. Like Makhachev, Dariush is an excellent top position grappler, one unafraid of jumping into Oliveira’s guard. That’s a problem for Oliveira because, as we discussed last time, the threat of his guard has been the straw that stirs the drink for Oliveira during this Renaissance run of his. Because opponents were afraid of going to the ground with him, Oliveira was free to be as aggressive as possible on the feet, knowing he could simply fall backwards and recover if necessary. That plan was not viable against Makhachev, and is similarly poor when facing Dariush. So what does that mean? Well, for starters, don’t give up takedowns.
Contrary to some opinions out there, Oliveira is not actually a poor defensive wrestler, he just rarely tries to do it. Against Makhachev, he pulled guard once, and got tripped with a sneaky throw along the fence, but other than that, he kept his feet (until he got dropped with a right hand). That has to be the priority in this fight. Dariush is not an explosive wrestler and he lacks the diversity of takedowns that Makhachev has, so if Oliveira can stuff the first attempt, he has a great chance of preventing the entire sequence.
That leads us to the clinch, because there’s a good chance a lot of this fight takes place there. Because Dariush is not an explosive wrestler, he ends up in clinches a fair amount, and he’s sneaky good there. He can work a throw-by or land knees, all while presenting the threat of a level change. Fortunately, Oliveira is also very dangerous in the clinch, and every time they get into one, he needs to make his presence known with elbows and knees, and then break. Don’t hang around and let Dariush find his way to the back from there.
The most important thing for Oliveira though is the striking. While not a technical savant, Oliveira is a much crisper striker than Dariush, who is prone to fits of wild aggression that leave his chin open. Oliveira needs to make him pay for that. The best weapons in this regard would be knees and uppercuts, as Dariush has a tendency to duck and charge in when he wants to force the issue, and a well-timed shot could floor him. I also like Oliveira’s snapping front kick in this matchup. It’s a good weapon in general and can stymie some of Dariush’ forward pressure.
Paths to victory for Beneil Dariush at UFC 289
Not to be too derivative but for Beneil Dariush to win this fight, he should simply replicate Islam Makhachev’s game plan. It worked brilliantly for Makhachev and Dariush has all the skills to do exactly the same thing.
As noted above, for as dangerous as Oliveira’s guard is, it’s unlikely to seriously threaten Dariush, who is an accomplished BJJ practitioner and one of the best grapplers in the UFC, full stop. Anything can happen, Dariush did get submitted by Michael Chiesa after all, but the odds are in his favor if Dariush can get Oliveira to the floor consistently. So that’s Plan A: pressure + takedowns = success.
On that note, pressure is really import here. Like many in MMA (including Dariush), Oliveira does his best work moving forward. Dariush cannot allow that to happen. He has to be the one dictating the terms of engagement, because when Oliveira gets a head full of steam, he is terrifying, but if you can slow his roll, he starts to recede. An Oliveira who is moving backwards and looking to react is far less dangerous than one on the hunt.
The striking is probably the biggest variable for Dariush because while he isn’t the prettiest striker, he is a really effective one, and Oliveira is certainly hittable on the feet. “Do Bronx” has been dropped in each of his past four fights, and Dariush has the power and the pocket awareness to do the same if they start exchanging inside. That’s a risky proposition though because Dariush is not the most defensively savvy, and while he has a great chin, it’s still not the best idea to let Oliveira club him. As far as the striking goes, I think Dariush is best served by keeping things simple. He has a good left body kick that he should go to liberally, and he should follow it up with left straights down the middle. Makhachev repeatedly plunked Oliveira with lefts down the pipe as Oliveira stepped in or retreated on straight lines, and Dariush should do the same.
X-Factors
Did Oliveira learn anything in his loss to Islam Makhachev?
Oliveira lost to Makhachev for very specific reasons, but it’s unclear if he is willing to acknowledge those and adapt. In March, Oliveira said he refused to watch the fight back and that he wouldn’t change anything moving forward. Presumably his coaches do not share this view, but ultimately it’s Oliveira who does the fighting. If he goes into this fight thinking that playing guard is totally fine, he’s probably cooked. This is only a 15-minute fight, meaning Dariush only needs two takedowns to win, and if Oliveira simply concedes them, then this fight is all but over already.
Prediction
For me, this fight comes down to who wins the pressure battle. While both men can fight in retreat, neither excels at it, and both are so good coming forward that whoever imposes their will in that way is almost certainly going to win the fight; and I think the most likely person to do that is Dariush. Oliveira is a momentum fighter and if Dariush can score a takedown early, or simply use the threat of takedowns to force him back, “Do Bronx” is going to find it hard to get going, and when that happens, it’s all over. Dariush will build as the fight goes on and Oliveira starts to wilt, resulting in a Dariush vs. Tony Ferguson style performance of dominance, only this time he’ll get the finish.
Beneil Dariush def. Charles Oliveira by submission (rear-naked choke) at 2:04 of round 3.
Poll
Who wins on Saturday?
This poll is closed
-
48%
Charles Oliveira
-
51%
Beneil Dariush
Loading comments...