The UFC returns to the APEX this Saturday with another Fight Night card, UFC Vegas 69, headlined by a short-notice women’s flyweight bout between Jessica Andrade and Erin Blanchfield. After that, there is precious little to write home about this weekend, but a fight card is still a fight card, so let’s dive in.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jessica Andrade, -135
If it weren’t for the fact that Andrade is taking this fight on a week’s notice, I would feel exceedingly confident in this bet. Don’t get me wrong, I love Erin Blanchfield. I’ve been extremely high on her as a prospect and repeatedly claimed she will one day win the flyweight title. But this is too much, too soon. Blanchfield’s game is heavily reliant on her ability to score takedowns and dictate the grappling exchanges, and when she hasn’t been able to do that, those are the moments we’ve seen her struggle. JJ Aldrich was dinging Blanchfield up on the feet, and with all due respect to Aldrich, Andrade is bringing far more to bear in the striking realm. The question is whether Blanchfield can score takedowns and how well Andrade’s cardio can hold up. I think Andrade should pass both with flying colors.
There’s something to be said here for betting the Andrade Inside The Distance prop at +110, but with the short-notice factor, and the fact that we’ve never seen Blanchfield stopped before, I’m erring on the side of caution.
William Knight, -120
This is one of those matchups that, on paper, Knight should win. But things get a lot murkier when you watch both men fight.
Knight is a physical specimen, with powerful takedowns and monstrous punches, but that power comes at the cost of a questionable gas tank. Prachnio, meanwhile, doesn’t jump off the page athletically, but he’s a big, physical guy who keeps up a good pace. The problem for Prachnio is that he’s not extremely durable and he’s a poor defensive wrestler. Knight has a good chance to simply shut his lights off with one big punch, and barring that, can score takedowns as needed. Philipe Lins took Prachnio down repeatedly, after all, so Knight should be able to manage the same if he starts to fade later in the fight.
Philipe Lins by KO/TKO/DQ, +240
Speaking of Lins, on the undercard this weekend he’s taking on former interim light heavyweight title challenger Ovince Saint Preux in a fight that could be terrible to watch. OSP has looked like a shell of himself the past couple of years, and while Lins is no one’s idea of a world-beater, he’s still at least giving a decent account of himself more often than not. Add in that OSP’s previous two losses were both by knockout, and that eight of Lins’ 15 career wins have come that same way, and that’s how you end up with this bet.
Parlay of the Week
Mayra Bueno Silva, -475
Lina Lansberg has not won a fight since 2019. MBS has won three fights in that time. We need not overthink this.
Jessica Andrade/Erin Blanchfield Over 1.5 Rounds, -225
This is the riskiest leg of the parlay because Jessica Andrade can up the violence meter at any point in time. Still, Blanchfield has looked durable over the course of her career and it’s unlikely she finishes Andrade quickly, even if she scores early takedowns.
Jordan Wright/Zac Pauga Does Not Got To Decision, -650
In Wright’s 17-fight career, he has never gone to decision. The man simply hates judges and feels they should not be involved in the sport. Pauga, meanwhile, has been far more likely to need the judges, but with Wright’s insistence on making things happen, he’s going to get or get got, meaning Pauga will have to oblige.
Parlay these three bets together for +101 odds.
Long Shot of the Week
Jim Miller to win in Round 2, +900
Shoutout to Conner Burks for this one, as I liked Miller as an underdog, before Conner pointed out that four of Alexander Hernandez’s last five losses have come in the second round and Miller has scored three straight second round finishes. How can you argue with math like that? If you’re feeling particularly frisky, you could instead look at Miller by Submission in Round 2 at +1200, or my personal favorite, Miller by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 at +2500.
Wow. Uh, about last week. Sheesh! I knew UFC 284 might be tricky, but that was historically bad, which means we’ve dug ourselves a hole. That, plus how barren this card is, means we’re keeping a light slate this weekend, to simply put up some numbers and get back on track. Hopefully it works.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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