Diaz is a +775 underdog, meaning a bet of $100 would return a profit of $775. The one-time lightweight title challenger has an implied winning probability of 11.43 percent. Meanwhile, Chimaev is a massive favorite at -1100, meaning a $100 wager would return a paltry $9.09 of profit. Chimaev has an implied winning probability of 91.67 percent.
The betting line dropped via Best Fight Odds, which aggregates betting lines via online bookmakers, just moments after news broke of Diaz’s Sept. 10 headliner opposite Chimaev. UFC executive Hunter Campbell told ESPN.com the bout is verbally agreed to with contracts expected to be finalized. The fight marks the final fight on Diaz’s current contract after he repeatedly asked to be released from the promotion amid a standstill over potential opponents.
Chimaev is undefeated at 11-0 including five straight UFC wins, three of which came in the first round. In his most recent appearance, which took place at UFC 273, he was tested against one-time welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns but emerged victorious via decision in a “Fight of the Year” candidate.
Diaz is 1-2 since returning from a three-year layoff. In his most recent appearance, he lost a lopsided decision to current welterweight title challenger Leon Edwards at UFC 263. But he won a moral victory with a last-second rally in which he had Edwards visibly rocked.
Opening betting odds for Nate Diaz vs. Khamzat Chimaev:
- Nate Diaz +775
- Khamzat Chimaev -1100