The UFC continues their 12-week summer tour with UFC Austin, headlined by a featherweight contest between Calvin Kattar and Josh Emmett. The co-main event features a re-booked legends fight between Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon and there are 12 other fights on the card, with copious betting opportunities, so let’s get to it.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Joe Lauzon +145
I said this at UFC 274 and it’s still applicable here as the odds have barely changed: Joe Lauson is a very fast starter, with 18 of his 28 career victories coming in the first round, and Donald Cerrone is slow starter, with seven of his 16 career losses coming in the first round. This is a fight between two guys who are well beyond their primes, but Lauzon certainly looked better than Cerrone did the last time out. Cerrone was the better fighter during their peaks, but simply put, Lauzon is better right now.
Gregory Rodrigues, -170
Rodrigues is a bit of a wild card. A former BJJ world champion, Rodrigues is brilliant on the ground, but in his UFC fights, as often as not he’s been content to stand and brawl with opponents. While that plan has mostly worked out for him, Rodrigues would be better served to pursue takedowns against Julian Marquez and I think he will, in part because Marquez is not a great defensive wrestler. And once he gets the fight on the floor, it should be one-way traffic for “Robocop.”
Gregory Rodrigues by Submission, +400
I’m slightly astonished at this line because I think it’s the most likely outcome for this fight. Julian Marquez is a good fighter but, as mentioned, he’s not a great wrestler and he’s nowhere near Rodrigues on the mat. If Rodrigues plays to his strengths, there is a high likelihood of him tapping out Marquez.
Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO, +130
Yanez is a massively talented prospect with some of the best boxing in the UFC. In his four fights in the octagon thus far, he’s scored three Performance of the Night bonuses for KOs, and then had Fight of the Night with the impossibly tough Davey Grant. Kelley is not a bad fighter but he’s long in the tooth (35 years old) and doesn’t have the skills to really stand up to Yanez. Add in Yanez’s extra motivation and I like his chances for a finish.
Parlay(s) of the Week
Kevin Holland -275
Tim Means is a tough out for anyone but he relies heavily on his length for his best offense, and Holland can match him there and is faster and more powerful. Add in that Holland is the superior grappler and this all adds up to a clean victory for the emerging welterweight.
Adrian Yanez, -320
Cody Stamann, -550
God love Eddie Wineland but his days as a top bantamweight are over. He’s lost four of his last five fights and now he faces a tank of a 135er with powerful wrestling and serviceable standup. This fight is designed to give Stamann a win and that’s exactly what will happen here.
Parlay these three bets together for +111 odds.
Gloria de Paula, -265
De Paula has had a tough run in the UFC but she has been steadily improving time in and time out and it looks like the company decided to throw her a bone. Maria Oliveira knows how to fight and has some scrap to her, but she’s stuff and uncomfortable, even when doing the things she wants to do. De Paula is the superior athlete, the more powerful striker, and simply much more fluid. She should win handily.
Phil Hawes, -260
Poor Deron Winn. He’s the Jeff Monson of middleweight, except that it’s substantially harder to pull that sort of thing off at middleweight instead of heavyweight. Winn is a good athlete and a great wrestler but Hawes has such enormous physical advantages here, that it doesn’t matter. Hawes loses fights on the feet, and Winn isn’t going to beat him there.
Parlay these two bets together for -111 odds.
Long Shot of the Week
Joe Lauzon to win by KO/TKO in Round 1, +1000
As mentioned above, Lauzon is a fast starter and Cerrone is a slow one, and that’s the genesis of this bet. I’m anticipating things to play out for both men according to the script and if that happens, Lauzon will simply overwhelm “Cowboy” with strikes. It’s not the longest of long shots, but I think it’s a good bet.
Another tough week, friends. I felt we were on the right side of most of the bets but Jiri’s miracle comeback meant we finished down again. Alas, on to the next one. This week, the way the bets and odds worked out, there was a lot of juice so I rolled with two parlays instead. Let’s try to cash some tickets.
As always, make sure to check out No Bets Barred for more gambling content if you haven’t already. Good luck y’all, and gamble responsibly!
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