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UFC Belem: Machida vs. Anders gambling guide

UFC Fight Night: Ultimate Media Day Photo by Buda Mendes/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

On Saturday evening, the UFC finally comes to Belem, Brazil with UFC Fight Night 125, headlined by middleweight clash between former light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida and rising prospect Eryk Anders. The rest of the card is a bit lackluster, especially after losing the John Dodson-Pedro Munhoz fight, but there are still 11 fights with opportunities to bet and we’ve got you covered with everything you need to know for gambling this weekend.


THE FIGHTS

UFC Fight Night 125; Mangueirinho Gymnasium in Belem, Brazil

FS1 Main Card (10 p.m. ET)

Lyoto Machida +225 (31%) vs. Eryk Anders -265 (73%)

Valentina Shevchenko -1000 (91%) vs. Priscila Cachoeira +650 (13%)

Michel Prazeres -130 (57%) vs. Desmond Green +110 (48%)

Timothy Johnson +135 (43%) vs. Marcelo Golm -155 (61%)

Douglas Silva de Andrade +125 (44%) vs. Marlon Vera -145 (59%)

Thiago Santos -300 (75%) vs. Anthony Smith +250 (29%)

FS2 Prelims (8 p.m. ET)

Sergio Moraes +170 (37%) vs. Tim Means -200 (67%)

Alan Patrick -250 (72%) vs. Damir Hadzovic +210 (32%)

Maia Stevenson +335 (23%) vs. Polyana Viana -420 (81%)

Iuri Alcantara +105 (49%) vs. Joe Soto -125 (56%)

UFC Fight Pass Prelims (7 p.m. ET)

Deiveson Figueiredo -150 (60%) vs. Joseph Morales +130 (43%)


THE BETS

Desmond Green at +115

Michel Prazeres takes on Des Green in what is now a catchweight fight after “Trator” missed weight by five pounds.

As his botched weight cut might indicate, Prazeres is a hulking figure of a lightweight and much of his game is built around these physical attributes. He bullrushes his way forward behind heavy punches, working to land takedowns where he can smother his opponents on top. He’s a strong wrestler and solid submission artist once he’s on the mat but his powerful game means he also has had cardio struggles in the past.

Green is Prazeres’ opposite. A lanky, lithe athlete with an NCAA wrestling background, Green prefers to strike at range and use his wrestling to stay upright. When Green does hit the floor, he’s proven susceptible to submissions and superior grappling.

Green’s last fight was a contentious decision loss to Rustam Khabilov, a fighter with many similarities to Prazeres. But Khabilov is a better fighter than “Trator” and he did not have a bad weight cut hindering him. Prazeres may be able to get Green down early but, like with Khabilov, Green should be able to stave off most of the takedowns and pile up points on the feet as Prazeres fades. The pick is Green by decision, so I like him for a bet.

Joseph Morales +130

The lone Fight Pass prelim features two undefeated, all-action prospects.

With two UFC fights already under his belt, Deiveson Figueiredo has proven to be an effective, if odd, fighter. Figueiredo eschews defense in favor of intermittent, powerful strikes and an opportunistic submission game. He’s not a great wrestler, but he’s good enough off his back to be a threat anywhere with submissions and sweeps.

Morales is a great athlete with the classical wrestle-boxing style that Team Alpha Male is famous for. He pushes a tremendous pace, can box a bit, and he’s an excellent wrestler and top-position grappler. He’s still young, but Morales looks to have a bright future ahead of him.

Figueiredo has the experience edge but Morales is just a more talented fighter and barring Figueiredo snatching up a guillotine choke, Morales is likely to dominate this fight with his wrestling and ground-and-pound. Morales is the pick here and I love him at plus money.


THE REST

  • I’m tempted to take a shot on Machida at this price since Anders is still so green and struggled with his weight cut, but “The Dragon” hasn’t won a fight since 2014 so it’s a pass.
  • Never bet these odds, even if Shevchenko is the uncrowned champion of W125.
  • We still have no idea what Golm’s game actually looks like. Johnson is a good benchmark to test Golm against but he’s a wild card and you shouldn’t bet this.
  • Surprised and sad Vera got this long, keep an eye out for if he drops back down.
  • Smith is too big of a ’dog here and worth a shot if you want some more action out of this card.
  • Odds are spot on for Moraes-Means.
  • Ditto for Patrick-Hadzovic.
  • Viana is so far ahead on the ground here that parlaying her isn’t terrible.
  • In a fight between two mercurial fighters like Alcantara and Soto, the best bet is no bet at all.

It’s a light week for betting but you can’t chase value that isn’t there. If you have any questions or you’d like to talk more about MMA betting or the fights in general, reach out to me @JedKMeshew. Otherwise, good luck and enjoy the fights!


(Editor’s note: All of this advice is for entertainment purposes only.)