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Ric's Picks: UFC Fight Night 37

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Thanks to Sean Knowles for the design.
Thanks to Sean Knowles for the design.

This UFC Fight Night 37 card marks the fourth UFC event in four weeks. So far, I'm behind the necessary pace to comfortably cross the finish line, so it might get bumpy from here. Buckle up for Ric's Picks.

If you’re not familiar with me or the rules of our game, check out Ric's Picks' debut post and get caught up.

Last week we watched the TUF China Finale, so let's briefly talk about that card and then move on to UFC Fight Night 37 .

Bet: Parlay of Hatsu Hioki (-440) and Not Vaughan Lee by decision (-252)

Wager: 15 units

Result: LOST 15 units

Hatsu Hioki predictably outgrappled Ivan Menjivar, but also predictably dropped the final round. He has tendency to give one round away, making his fights much closer than they should be, but he got it done.

In the match-up between Nam Phan and Vaughan Lee, I bet on every possible outcome other than the one that occurred. Before the fight, I predicted that Phan, who is typically ultra aggressive, would use his technical boxing to deliver body shot combinations and win a decision. I also allowed for the possibility that Lee, who packs a punch, would either catch Phan with a blow he didn't see coming or a tricky submission.

Neither of these happened. Lee put on a show against the clearly outmatched Phan, hitting him with every strike in the arsenal. It is not possible to have predicted an outcome more incorrectly. Dang.

Bet: Parlay of Hatsu Hioki (-440) and Matt Mitrione (+105) to win 15.16 units

Wager: 10 units

Result: WON 15.16 units

Matt Mitrione was an underdog to Shawn Jordan, but shouldn't have been in my opinion. I predicted Mitrione to knock Jordan out early or outpoint him using superior hand and foot speed. The former happened and this bet cashed.

TUF China Finale Result: +0.16 Units

Total After Three Events: 107.12 Units

It was another positive event (by a hair), which is good, but I need to pick up the pace. I've been wagering enough to stay competitive with steady gains, but my results have hardly been consistent. With the halfway mark one event away, it might soon be time to take greater risks and let the chips fall.

At the time I'm writing this, props bets (other than the over/under) are only available for the main event of UFC Fight Night 37. This will put me at a significant disadvantage, but there's no crying in Ric's Picks. Let's work with what we've got and pick up some units.

Bet: Davey Grant (-115)

Wager: 20 units

Potential Winnings: 17.39 units

Davey Grant opened as an underdog (+100) and I would've liked those odds a little better, but I still think there's value at -115. Grant is a well-rounded fighter, with the ability to beat Roland Delorme on the feet or in the clinch. While Delorme has an advantage on the ground, it's not a situation where Grant must keep the fight standing or lose. Grant was submitted by Chris Holdsworth his last time out, but Holdsworth is a truly special grappler.

Unless Delorme clips Grant with some winged punches or snatches up a slick submission, Grant should be able to dictate the pace and control where the fight plays out. That's no small task, as Delorme is a proven finisher at this point, but he often takes quite a bit of damage to get it done.

Bet: Parlay of Luke Barnatt (-290) and Cyrille Diabate (-110)

Wager: 15 units

Potential Winnings: 23.51 units

I like the two big men here. Luke Barnatt and Cyrille Diabate should both be able to use immense height and reach advantages to keep their opponents on the outside.

While Mat Nilsson is a formidable submission grappler, I don't see him being able to get inside on Barnatt, who has solid takedown defense and knows how to utilize his physical advantages.

Ilir Latifi is giving up nearly a foot to Diabate in their match-up. Although I'm slightly reluctant to bet on a 40-year-old fighter who was injured in his last bout and talking about retirement (yikes -- a lot of flags here), a healthy, focused Diabate tunes up Latifi.

Latifi's striking is powerful, but wild. Diabate is a fine technical striker who can capitalize on the openings Latifi leaves on the feet. Diabate is a much better submission grappler from the top than the bottom, but I don't see Latifi being able to keep him there if he gets him down.

I'm looking for a clean sweep from Team Goliath.

I wanted to throw a bet or two out on the Michael Johnson/Melvin Guillard and Brad Pickett/Neil Seery fights, but not as straight bets and unfortunately the props have not posted yet. Shucks.

At Risk: 35 Units

Potential Profit: 40.9 Units

DISLCAIMER: I do not recommend betting units that resemble the amounts wagered in this competition. Due to its nature, I am attempting to profit at an advanced rate and risking significantly more than is advisable for proper bankroll management. Please evaluate the breakdowns provided and adjust accordingly.