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Ric's Picks: TUF China Finale

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Thanks to Sean Knowles for the design.
Thanks to Sean Knowles for the design.

I'm back for the third week in a row with my betting picks. If you’re not familiar with me or the rules of our game, check out Ric's Picks' debut post and get caught up.

Let''s revisit UFC 170 and then preview the TUF China Finale.

UFC 170 Recap

10 units on Daniel Cormier wins inside the distance at -140 to win 7.14 units (WIN)

This was a no-brainer. I should have bet more, but hesitated because Daniel Cormier was making his first cut to 205. WHOOPS!

10 units on Alexis Davis at -145 to win 6.9 units (WIN)

As I mentioned in the Ric's Picks post for UFC 170 (and the comments section), Jessica Eye is the superior boxer, but Alexis Davis' varied attack would be the difference. It looked shaky to start, but Davis pulled it together to earn the win.

10 units on Robert Whittaker at +115 to win 11.5 units (LOSS)

I was torn on this fight, but sided with Whittaker. I should have passed. Stephen Thompson is a bad boy.

5 units on a parlay of Ronda Rousey wins by submission (-155) and Robert Whittaker wins by decision (+397) to win 35.88 units (LOSS)

5 units on a parlay of Ronda Rousey wins by submission (-155) and Rory MacDonald wins by decision (-116) to win 10.32 units (LOSS)

5 units on a parlay of Ronda Rousey wins by submission (-155) and Mike Pyle/TJ Waldburger doesn’t go to decision (-180) to win 7.8 units (LOSS)

The Robert Whittaker leg of the first parlay busted early, but Rory MacDonald delivered and so did Mike Pyle.

Ultimately, I was done in by the finishing ability of Ronda Rousey. I capped the possibility of this fight ending via TKO/KO as next to none. Why? No matter how much Rousey stated in the fight lead-up that she was working on the stand-up game and chasing a non-submission finish, her striking defense has proven to be bad. She's unable to avoid punches and looks much more graceful (and dominant) when hip tossing opponents with ease. The armbar is a foregone conclusion at that point, so why shy away now?

Because Rousey is that much better than every other female in her weight class. Maybe she's bored, or maybe she was sending a message, but it didn't play out in typical fashion. Rousey made it look much sloppier, but equally easy while finishing Sara McMann in the first round.

UFC 170 Result: -10.96 Units

Total After Two Events: 106.96 Units

Regardless of overcommitting to Robert Whittaker, it could have been a winning night with a Ronda Rousey submission. That said, this was a pretty poor betting performance and I definitely should have taken Rousey at (-460) in the three parlays, but chased higher return. I also should've bet much heavier on the Cormier/Cummins squash match. The picks were right, but the method matters. It was an unfortunate step back.

Moving on.

The TUF China Finale card is terrible and it's not any better betting-wise. Half the guys don't even have Wikipedia pages and you can bet I wasn't tuning in to watch them beat up that yoga instructor on the show. Finding actual UFC fighters that I was confident enough to wager money on was tough.

15 units on a parlay of Hatsu Hioki (-440) and Not Vaughan Lee by decision (-252) to win 10.71

10 units on a parlay of Hatsu Hioki (-440) and Matt Mitrione (+105) to win 15.16 units

I like Hatsu Hioki to control Ivan Menjivar with his length and Nam Phan to win a decision over Vaughan Lee by utilizing his boxing. If Lee wins, it will probably be a finish, so I like the line on any outcome other than a Lee decision.

I think Matt Mitrione should be the favorite in this fight, but his tendency to keep his hands low worries me. I see him clipping Shawn Jordan early or using his superior footwork to outpoint Jordan late. Avoiding takedowns will be key.

I'm not ultra confident in either of these plays, but I've got to make up some ground after losing last week. *fingers crossed*

At Risk: 25 Units

Potential Profit: 25.87 Units

DISLCAIMER: I do not recommend betting units that resemble the amounts wagered in this competition. Due to its nature, I am attempting to profit at an advanced rate and risking significantly more than is advisable for proper bankroll management. Please evaluate the breakdowns provided and adjust accordingly.