UFC on FOX is no ordinary event, so this is no ordinary odds breakdown. Normally we have a main card full of favorites and underdogs to sort through and pick away at. This time? It's the main event, a lightweight contender bout, and then a lot of stuff that (at least by comparison) feels like filler designed to keep the fans in their seats until it's time.
With the abbreviated TV offering just a few days away, it's time to take a look at the action that really matters.
-- has been sidelined with a broken hand lately. You factor in the possibility that the champ might be feeling some pressure to brawl in order to give the FOX audience (and his boss) a show they'll remember, and suddenly dos Santos starts to look like a very strong underdog pick, right? Maybe, but that is an awful lot of faith in a few intangibles. On paper, Velasquez's speed and wrestling skills should make the difference. He ought to be able to get in close, negate dos Santos' ability to box from the outside, and either put him down or rough him up in the clinch. It's hard to feel terribly confident after the lay-off he's had, but it's also hard to pick against the champ at this point in his career. This is one fight where dos Santos will not be able to take his foot off the gas in the later rounds.
My pick: Velasquez. If you were smart, you jumped on this line back when it was -150. Then again, if you're smart you don't bet on fights this tough to call to begin with.
Clay GuidaBen Henderson
(-280)
, and if we want to start playing the transitive property game, we could point out that Pettis beat Henderson. At the same time, Henderson's takedown defense keeps getting better, and he can be absolutely brutal when his striking game starts to click. Guida has outworked superior athletes before, but this is a tall order even for him.
My pick: Henderson. I still think it's a closer fight than these odds would suggest, but it's a tough style match-up for Guida.
Quick picks:
(even). I'm afraid Swanson's best days may be behind him. Lamas is just good enough to get the job done.
(+220). Johnson's getting a much easier bout after stepping up late to face Sadollah. Expect him to make the most of it.
might be tossing Yamamoto an easy one to keep him around for at least a little while longer. Oh well.
Crazy underdog pick of the night:
(+220) over Dustin Poirier (-280). People may be getting a little too hot on Poirier just a tad too soon. There aren't a lot of attractive underdog lines on this card, so this one will have to do.
The 'For Entertainment Purposes Only' Parlay: Velasquez + Henderson + Johnson + Yamamoto
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Cain Velasquez sits on top of the cage during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos shadowboxes during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos shows off his excitement during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos hits pads during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos hits pads during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos takes a breather during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos hits pads during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos waits to hit pads during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos puts on his gloves during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos shadowboxes during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos wraps his hands during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
A kid demonstration takes place during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
A kid demonstration takes place during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos talks to the media during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Clay Guida and Art Jimmerson pose for a photograph during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Clay Guida gets in a wrestling stance during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Clay Guida dries off during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Clay Guida practices his ground and pound techniques during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Clay Guida warms up during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Clay Guida warms up during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Clay Guida warms up during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Clay Guida warms up during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Ben Henderson relaxes during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Ben Henderson kicks the pads during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Ben Henderson knees the pads during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Clay Guida throws a kick during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Ben Henderson shadowboxes during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Cain Velasquez poses with a fan during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Cain Velasquez talks to the media during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Cain Velasquez talks to the media during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Cain Velasquez shadowboxes during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Cain Velasquez shadowboxes during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Cain Velasquez warms up during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Cain Velasquez shadowboxes during the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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UFC on FOX Workout Photos
Junior dos Santos signs autographs at the UFC on FOX media workouts on Thursday, Nov. 10, 2011 at the UFC Gym in Rosemead, Calif.
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