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Where I Was Wrong: Todd Duffee, John Hathaway, Jason Brilz

Before every big fight card, I write up a preview and predictions piece. Invariably, some of my predictions are wrong. Here I'll examine where I went wrong and why on my UFC 114 preview and predictions.

Todd Duffee: I picked Duffee to beat Mike Russow, and I even wrote that the 24-year-old Duffee could challenge Junior dos Santos for the title of the best young heavyweight in MMA.

For the first few minutes of the fight Duffee looked like he would prove me right. But two things started to happen: Duffee started to run out of gas, and Russow showed off an incredible chin and refusal to go down. Eventually Duffee had punched himself out and started to drop his hands, and then, in the third round, Russow landed a punch right on the money that knocked Duffee out.

I probably overreacted when Duffee set the record for the fastest knockout in UFC history by finishing Tim Hague in seven seconds at UFC 102, so I'm going to try not to overreact in the opposite direction to this fight. Duffee is a good young heavyweight prospect with the power to be a real threat in the future. But Russow showed how an experienced opponent with a good chin can weather the storm and beat Duffee.

John Hathaway: I knew Hathaway was a very good young welterweight, but I didn't think he was quite ready for an opponent on the level of Diego Sanchez. As it turned out, Hathaway thoroughly dominated Sanchez from start to finish, winning 30-27 on two judges' cards and 30-26 on the other. I'm very excited about what Hathaway can do in the future.

Jason Brilz: Technically, I wasn't wrong about this one. I said Antonio Rogerio Nogueira would win his fight with Brilz, and Nogueira did win. But I was completely wrong about how the fight would go. I referred to Brilz as "a much weaker opponent" for Nogueira than his originally scheduled opponent, Forrest Griffin, and I said Nogueira would finish Brilz in the first round.

As it turned out, Brilz took Nogueira to a very close split decision that I personally scored for Brilz, 29-28. And in retrospect, I actually think Brilz fought Nogueira better than Griffin would have: I thought Brilz did a great job of taking Nogueira down and using his wrestling to control him on the ground, and I'm not sure Griffin would have been as successful.Brilz lost, but he proved a lot of people wrong -- including yours truly.

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