
What: UFC 114: Rampage vs. Evans
When: The non-televised undercard starts at 7 PM ET Saturday, the Spike TV card starts at 9 and the pay-per-view card starts at 10.
Where: MGM Grand, Las Vegas
Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights:
Rampage Jackson vs. Rashad Evans
At his best, Rampage was a better fighter than Evans was. But I have my doubts that we'll see Rampage at his best on Saturday night. He hasn't fought since March of 2009, and when he quit the UFC to focus on acting last year, he sounded like a man who had lost his passion for the sport. Rampage will turn 32 next month, and I believe his best days are behind him. Evans, on the other hand, will come in well-prepared and with a good game plan that allows him to pick Jackson apart on his feet and control him on the ground. I like Evans to win a decision.
Pick: Evans
Michael Bisping vs. Dan Miller
I think we've all got a pretty good idea what kind of fighter Bisping is: Good enough to consistently beat the Denis Kangs and Chris Lebens of the world, but not good enough to beat Evans or Dan Henderson or Wanderlei Silva, the three men who have handed him his three career losses. I view Miller as being in the Kang/Leben class, and so I'm taking Bisping to win this one. Despite his status as a co-main event fighter, Miller is on a two-fight losing streak and could be in danger of losing his job in the UFC if he loses to Bisping, especially if he loses a boring decision.
Pick: Bisping
Todd Duffee vs. Mike Russow
Other than the main event, I consider this to be the best fight on the card. The 24-year-old Duffee is a hard hitter who's one of the sport's elite heavyweight prospects, but Russow, a Chicago police officer, will give Duffee his toughest test yet on the ground. I like Duffee to stay on his feet and stay undefeated.
Pick: Duffee
Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz
Nogueira was supposed to fight Forrest Griffin in a bout that would have been a great one, but Griffin got hurt and we're left with Brilz, a much weaker opponent for Little Nog. I see Nogueira finishing Brilz in the first round.
Pick: Nogueira
Diego Sanchez vs. John Hathaway
After B.J. Penn badly beat him in a lightweight title fight, Sanchez made what I think was the correct decision, to move back up to welterweight. I don't see Sanchez as a welterweight title contender, but I do see him as a good gatekeeper for promising prospects. That's exactly what Hathaway is: A 12-0 welterweight who's going to get by far the biggest test of his career in Sanchez. Maybe Hathaway will surprise everybody, but I don't see him being quite ready for this big a step up in competition.
Pick: Sanchez