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Shane Carwin's Opponents: 49-42; Gabriel Gonzaga's Opponents: 129-63-7

In a vacuum, Shane Carwin's record of 10-0 (with five first-round knockouts and five first-round submissions) looks like one of the most impressive records in mixed martial arts. But let's dig a little deeper into Carwin's record and that of his UFC 96 opponent, Gabriel Gonzaga.

Strength of schedule: Carwin's 10-0 looks less impressive when you realize that his opponents have a combined record of 49-42. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has put together a 10-3 record against opponents with a combined record of 129-63-7. In other words, the typical guy Carwin has fought has a 5-4 record. The typical guy Gonzaga has fought has a 10-5 record.

Strength of victory: Of course, just adding up the combined record of the opponents in Gonzaga's 13 fights is giving him credit for the three fights he lost, to Randy Couture and twice to Fabricio Werdum. But even if we just look at the combined record of the 10 guys Gonzaga has beaten, it's still 91-46-5 -- a lot better than the combined record of the 10 opponents Carwin has beaten.

Battle tested: Neither Gonzaga nor Carwin has ever gone to a decision. But Gonzaga has gone past the first round seven times. Carwin has never even gone to the halfway point of the first round. I don't want to hold Carwin's ability to finish opponents quickly against him, but if Saturday night's fight goes beyond the first round, Gonzaga will be in familiar territory, and Carwin won't be.

Under the lights: Gonzaga has eight UFC fights under his belt, including two main events. Carwin has two UFC fights, neither of which was on the main card. Will Carwin have butterflies?

I point all these things out not to diminish Carwin -- I picked him to pull the upset and beat Gonzaga -- but it is clear that while both Carwin and Gonzaga have won 10 fights, their records couldn't be much more different.