
But UFC President Dana White could take a huge step to undercut Affliction and show that UFC is still the dominant dog: He could take the Brock Lesnar-Heath Herring fight, which is currently scheduled for UFC 87, August 9 on pay-per-view, and move it to July 19 on free TV or basic cable (most likely Spike), head to head with Affliction's pay-per-view show.
That would crush Affliction. Although I was skeptical about Lesnar when he first signed with UFC, he's undeniably a big draw. He's well-known from his days in the WWE, and MMA fans respect his background as an NCAA wrestling champion. Emelianenko is a much more accomplished MMA fighter than Lesnar, but among American fans, Lesnar's name is bigger than Fedor's, and if the choice is between watching Lesnar on basic cable or paying $50 to watch Fedor, for most fans, that's an easy choice to make.
Removing Lesnar from UFC 87 probably wouldn't even hurt UFC much in pay-per-view revenue. Even without Lesnar, UFC 87 is a strong show, with welterweight champion Georges St.-Pierre defending his title against Jon Fitch in the main event, and a good undercard featuring Roger Huerta vs. Kenny Florian and Cheick Kongo vs. Dan Evensen.
Putting Lesnar on free TV would be a smart business move, and I expect it to happen.