Rami Genauer of FightMetric.com has a great analysis of Georges St.-Pierre today at Yahoo Sports, and it serves as a reminder of just how ridiculously dominant St.-Pierre has been throughout his career.
FightMetric analyzes fights using something called Total Performance Rating, which is scored on a scale where a fighter who beats his opponent by a score of 100-0 would have fought a perfect fight, and a score of 60-40 or closer would be a good fight. St-Pierre has a professional mixed martial arts record of 15-2, and 14 of those 15 wins have been by a margin of greater than 60-40. (St-Pierre's only close win was against B.J. Penn.)
It's that dominance that makes St-Pierre such a huge favorite as he prepares to fight Matt Serra for the welterweight championship at UFC 83. We all remember St-Pierre destroying his opponents, Genauer's statistical analysis tells us that our memories are correct, and it just feels like no one could possibly beat St-Pierre.
But that gets back to Serra's complaints that everyone shortchanges him. After all, the FightMetric numbers say Serra dominated St-Pierre as much as St-Pierre dominates everyone else, landing 16 strikes to just four for St-Pierre before knocking St-Pierre out 3:25 into the first round.
This all brings us to the fundamental question of whether Serra's victory over St-Pierre was a one-time fluke or an achievement that Serra is likely to repeat. I'm predicting St-Pierre to win, and I'd pick him to win against any welterweight, because of the dominant career he's had. But Serra's great performance the first time they fought keeps me from making that prediction with much confidence.
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