Feb 7, 2012 - UFC 143 was supposed to clear up a few things in the welterweight division. Define a No. 1 contender. Move another name forward. Chart the course towards Georges St-Pierre.
Instead, we're left with chaos after a unanimous but controversial decision win by Condit which left many clamoring for a rematch, Diaz saying he was ready to hang up his gloves, and the UFC unsure of what will come next. Nowhere near as bad but also troubling: Josh Koscheck barely squeaked by Mike Pierce in a decision that also had many observers voicing objection.
So there's plenty to think about, and plenty to project in this edition of The Forward Roll.
Carlos Condit
It was bad enough that both Diaz and Georges St-Pierre significantly overshadowed Condit on the way to UFC 143, but even after Condit won and snapped Diaz's lengthy 11-fight win streak, he was almost immediately cast aside for criticisms of his performance, claims of a judging robbery, and Diaz's retirement talk. Let's get one thing straight: Condit didn't run from Diaz; he moved to the center of the cage and re-set. He engaged Diaz many times, as Diaz didn't get the marks on his face by accident. It may not have been a typical Condit performance, but neither is it worthy of the scorn he's received from many. This is a fighter who has only two decision wins in 28 career victories. You may find fault with the judges' decision, but Condit came in with a plan and executed it, choosing to live with the results. Now the question is whether or not he'll defend the interim belt or wait for St-Pierre.
Prediction: Condit faces St-Pierre in the late fall.
Nick Diaz
Diaz said he'd walk away from the sport after feeling robbed by the judges yet again. It had to be frustration talking, but who knows how long the sentiment will continue. Diaz is still just 28 years old, near his athletic and earnings prime, and unlikely to drop very far in the rankings as the result of a contested loss. After fighting seven times in the last 24 months -- including five scheduled five-round bouts -- perhaps he simply hit a breaking point. Either way, he's due some time off. Diaz should take a couple of months to indulge his non-MMA interests, from triathlons to sport jiu-jitsu, and make his decision with a clear head. But the smart money expects to see him back at some point this year.
Prediction: Jon Fitch and Diaz were both top five ranked for the last couple of years. Both are coming off losses. That sounds good.
Fabricio Werdum
Werdum's striking game looked excellent in his three-round destruction of Roy Nelson, with major advancements to his Muay Thai clinch and kicking. Add those new tools to his brilliant jiu-jitsu and the 34-year-old has to be considered near the top of the division.
Prediction: He faces Frank Mir
Roy Nelson
Nelson continues to reshape his body, weighing just 246 for the fight against Werdum. Now it will be interesting to see if he drops more weight, in which case he can probably drop to 205, or stays in the same ballpark. Regardless, losses to Werdum, Mir and Junior dos Santos put into question his ability to rise to the upper echelon of the division.
Prediction: He faces the Mark Hunt-Cheick Kongo loser
Josh Koscheck
It's hard to raise Koscheck's stock after escaping with a razor close win, even if Pierce is a solid opponent. But afterward, Koscheck explained that he had issues with his training camp, and is leaving his longtime home at American Kickboxing Academy. That would certainly affect his preparation, so we'll have to give him a pass on a mediocre performance.
Prediction: He faces the Jake Ellenberger vs. Diego Sanchez winner
Mike Pierce
Prior to the bout, I thought Pierce had a legitimate chance to beat Koscheck, and I feel that Pierce won the bout. According to FightMetric, he landed more strikes in both the first and second rounds. But it was not to be, as Koscheck's takedowns and takedown defense might have swayed the judges. The loss shouldn't affect Pierce's standing much in the organization, as even company president Dana White said he scored the fight for Pierce.
Prediction: He faces Brian Ebersole
Renan Barao
Another impressive win from Barao, who swept the judges' scorecards against top 10 featherweight Scott Jorgensen. The victory puts Barao in good position, as the only top featherweight who has yet to face current champ Dominick Cruz. Cruz, however, is locked in to fight Urijah Faber around summertime, so Barao will have to fight and win at least once more before challenging for the belt.
Prediction: He faces the winner of Michael McDonald vs. Miguel Torres
Dustin Poirier
The 23-year-old easily handled a low-reward matchup with the debuting Max Holloway, winning by first-round submission. Poirier remains one of the featherweight division's best young talents, and prior to the Holloway bout, had been scheduled to face Erik Koch. That's still a fight worth making.
Prediction: He faces Koch
21 comments
Comments
What's next for the KO of the night artist?
How could you forget Stephen Thompson? What’s the prediction for him?
As for my opinion on Condit, there’s a reason he was handed the Interim Belt. So the welterweight division can go on. He should defend it at least once and he should defend it against Johny Hendricks.
by JasonVanBuren on Feb 7, 2012 11:18 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Jason, I try to stick with more established guys most of the time on Forward Roll because it’s easier to project who they might face. With someone like Thompson, even though it was a great debut, because of his newcomer status, they might still match him up with another fighter competing in the UFC for the first time next time around.
by Mike Chiappetta on Feb 7, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Put Thompson up against Lance Benoist! another 6-0 welterweight with one ufc win
by Rob2507 on Feb 7, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
I for one would like a condit vs diaz rematch.
I have no qualms about the way condit fought. My problem is with the judging criteria, and the incompetent judging. The score cards were all over the place when it came to scoring the rds.
Doubt this will happen…condit would wait a year probably just to fight gsp.
by XingYi on Feb 7, 2012 12:10 PM EST via mobile reply actions
No rematch needed.
There doesn’t need to be a rematch every time there’s a close fight or some fans disagree with the decision. There have certainly been serious displays of incompetence in judging over the years, but this was not one of them. Condit earned the win; Diaz simply didn’t do enough against him.
by JitsMasta on Feb 7, 2012 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
`REMATCH
Dig deep Dana and get the rematch on.Pay Condit some decent money this time and you can make it happen.If we get a repeat performance it proves Condit ,s leg kicks are awesome if not we get a decision..
by GizMo,s BAcK on Feb 7, 2012 12:21 PM EST reply actions
Agree with you 100%
about both the main event and Kos/Pierce. Condit/Jackson’s plan was picture perfect and executed without flaw. There were a couple of time where I could see Carlos getting pissed, but he kept his head in the game and stuck with it. Awesome fight, actually. Hope Nick doesn’t quit, tho. Fitch fight would be interesting, given the contrast in styles.
Josh looked lackluster at best. Don’t know if he just had a bad night or if he’s still wrecked from the beatdown he got from GSP. Either way, tho, he still generates heat for fights. His post fight was classic.
by djabstract on Feb 7, 2012 1:36 PM EST reply actions
Can adults train at Cesar Gracie's school
Or is it only open to very troubled children?
by MrJM on Feb 7, 2012 1:52 PM EST reply actions
very funny! ha ha
by ChrisOB on Feb 7, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
I'm surprised by MMA media bias on Condit-Diaz
Whether or not you think Condit deserved the decision, the fight was damn close. I don’t understand why the MMA media is so quick to try to shut down people who are contesting the decision or calling for a rematch.
Dana White said he gave rounds 1 and 2 to Diaz, which the judges didn’t give to Diaz.
Condit himself said he only thought he won rounds 1-4 yet two judges gave Condit round 5.
Most people don’t think Diaz won round 3 yet two judges gave him that one.
Joe Rogan said yesterday that after rewatching the fight he thinks Diaz won rounds 1,2 and 5.
I am not arguing that these are opinions we all need to share nor am I saying that I don’t understand how judges gave Condit the nod. However, I do think there is validity to people questioning the decision and we should be able to have a potentially rational conversation about it.
by rongbips on Feb 7, 2012 2:20 PM EST reply actions
The round by round judge scores need to be looked at
I couldn’t agree with you more rongbips. You makes some very good points. You can’t just dismiss opinions in a fight that was this close. Even the judges disagreed on what was going on.
by shonuf1 on Feb 7, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
Most definitely
Just look at the pictures of the fight posted on MMAF,there’s 20 or so of Condit striking Diaz,but only 2 or 3 of Diaz doing anything.It’s as though they’re trying to make it seem to the more ignorant readers here that Condit had this landslide victory when he didn’t.
And the judging round by round IS bizarre…1 and 5 were Diaz’s best rounds it seemed,and somehow he lost them on two of the judges scorecards.But diaz won round 3 on two of their cards when that was possibly his WORST round.Something strange is afoot,and not many seem to want to delve too deeply to find out just what that something is.
by dh3240 on Feb 7, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
I definitely wanna see the Ellenberger/koscheck matchup, I don’t really see how Sanchez is gonna beat Ellenberger. And then the winner of Koscheck/Ellenberger fights the winner of Gsp/Condit. My plan would only be cool If ellenberger wins both fights lol
by Rob2507 on Feb 7, 2012 2:58 PM EST reply actions
My respect for both Condit and Diaz shot through the roof
Diaz got the win that nets him much respect from fighters and fans,Condit got the win that got him his belt (however hollow and pointless it may be for now),a win bonus,a motorcycle and an opportunity at GSP.
Both of these wins are noble…I’m sure Condit wanted to go in and trade blows and make it a knockdown,drag out war.But he swallowed his pride,played it safe,and did what he had to do to appeal to the judges and get the win that would get him what he needs and wants,namely the most money possible for his wife and baby and the new house they’re having built,and a long awaited title fight.
If you watch the 3rd and final Primetime episode,Condit finally begins to crack and you can see a deep seated,bitter rage that he had kept pent up inside for years over not being given his due.People say Nick has a problem expressing his anger,but it’s far worse to keep it inside like Condit.When they wrapped the belt around his waist,the look on his face was beautiful,this “I finally fucking did it” look.I feel happy for Condit.
Nick had a win of his own,just as valid and noble as Condits.He refused to back down,he came for a war and did what he does best,and he was declared the winner by many of his fellow fighters,including Dan Henderson,Chuck Liddell and Anderson Silva,the latter two of which saw the fight at ringside.
I too declared him the winner,as did many of his fans,as well as neutral parties and even a few of his detractors who were honorable enough to see past their inexplicable,venomous hatred of him and admit that he won 1,2 and 5.His adherence to principles in the cage and his refusal of the judges decision just makes me like him more.The best of luck for Condit and Diaz in their futures.
by dh3240 on Feb 7, 2012 3:55 PM EST reply actions
You are wrong.
I said this before i like nick diaz style of fighting but if i was to sit here and say nick won a round id be a fool, sure he had his moments in the fight but it was carlos condit ’s stick and move tactic that frustrated him the most. Carlos had a gameplan and he executed that gameplan to perfection. The fact that nick diaz cant admit defeat jst shows how fear could cloud someones judgement.
by DiGreatest on Feb 8, 2012 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Diaz vs Koscheck and Condit vs Ellenberger (I’m predicting Jake wins). Condit said he wouldn’t wait for GSP and he should follow through. After all if he thinks he can beat GSP then he must believe he can beat anyone else the UFC throws at him. Ring rust may be a real factor for GSP by the time he is ready and Condit should stay active and sharp to give him the best chance to win. I thought Ellenberger actually deserved the win against Condit and I wouldn’t mind a rematch. Hopefully by that time the division will have itself sorted out with couple new contenders for the belt
by kanienkeha009 on Feb 7, 2012 4:17 PM EST reply actions
I want to see a Rematch
Or at least see Condit fight again before late 2012 or 2013.
And I think Diaz should fight Koscheck if he doesn’t get a rematch. I know the UFC likes to put losers against losers, but Kos’ performance wasn’t that great. I’m still a Kos fan, though.
by TomFop on Feb 7, 2012 4:59 PM EST reply actions
in regards to Nelson, he should probably just drop to 205.
I don’t think he stands a chance of winning a title in either division, but he is just getting hit so freak’n hard by the better fighters in the HW division. It might be better for his cranium if he went down to a lower weight class.
"Alistair Overeem is a Dutch kickboxer who looks like someone at Marvel comics drew a man genetically engineered to fuck your girlfriend."
Hendo/Bisping:
"He hit him so hard that even gravity got scared. Bisping hung in mid-air for a moment while gravity screamed at inertia, "Did you see that shit!?" Then, after a high five, the two universal forces quit screwing around and yanked Bisping's limp body onto the floor." - quotes are by Seanbaby
by superfknmario_ on Feb 7, 2012 6:20 PM EST reply actions
The moment ABruce Buffer announced Steve Mazagatti as the ref and Cecil Peoples as a ringside judge, I knew it was over before it began
When you have incompetent people reffing and judging MMA, not to mention the same bout, nothing good can come of it. Seriously, the fighters should boycott fighting when either Mazagatti or Peoples preside over a fight, especially if it’s a main event or title fight.
I’m not bitter about the decision. I knew what Condit was doing when he would move away from the cage and let Diaz chase him into getting leg kicked. He executed a good gameplan that worked in the context of MMA rules. Would that work in a real fight without judges and refs? Probably not. However, I think the expectation that people had, plus Joe Rogan’s unecessary hyperbole at the end of the prelims made the hype much bigger than the fight itself and it backfired because we were essentially promised a war and we got an entertaining technical match instead. the crowd, or should I say the mob disagreed. You could even see it in Condit’s face when he won. It was bittersweet because he wanted people to cheer but instead, he was getting overwhelming boos from the crowd…. not something you want to hear when you’re a newly crowned champion. The judge’s scorecards didn’t help either with the lopsided decision handed down. I scored it 49-48 Diaz as he pushed the action and had better Octagon control but Condit landed more leg kicks, though they didn’t do as much damage, he did land more. So in the context of MMA rules, yes he did deserve to win.
by Kid Dinomite on Feb 7, 2012 6:53 PM EST reply actions
Your perception is a common one, but...
Don’t confuse octagon control with Condit’s allowing of Diaz to be the stalker. Condit’s plan was to counter, and counter he did. Everyone knows Diaz is going to walk his opponents down. But he didn’t land as many strikes or do as much damage as Condit did.
Regarding your scoring, did you mean 49-46 or 48-47? I’m sure you didn’t mean 49-48.
I agree with you about one thing though: Mazagatti + Peoples = DISASTER (usually).
But however screwy the scoring was spread out, the decision was ultimately the right one.
by JitsMasta on Feb 7, 2012 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
how did u score it
49-48? do u mean 48-47?
by UFC Champ 42O on Feb 7, 2012 7:59 PM EST reply actions
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