UFC
84: Ill Will will be coming to us all live on May 24, 2008
from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. Once again, the
UFC has outdone itself by putting together three huge fights
on the same night. Here’s a hint: B.J. Penn vs. Sean
Sherk, Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz, and Wanderlei Silva
vs. Keith Jardine.
Enough
said. Now let’s get to the preview.
The
last time we saw B.J. Penn in a cage with
Sean Sherk, the legendary Brazilian Jiu
Jitsu fighter had the following to say:
“Sean
Sherk, you’re dead.”
Well,
now it’s time to show the world that he meant those
words. Penn is certainly capable, as his 12-4-1 overall
MMA record with four (T)KO’s and five submission victories
will attest to. Further, he’s taken on a ton of upper
echelon guys including Matt Serra (decision victory), Lyoto
Machida (decision loss), Georges St. Pierre (decision victory),
Matt Hughes (one win, one loss), and Jens Pulver (one win,
one loss), amongst others. The reason why he’s been
able to hang on and in many cases defeat such stellar foes
is that he’s as well rounded as they come.
We’re
talking about some of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu the world
has ever seen coupled with very strong boxing skills. Heck,
even his takedowns, takedown defense, and ground control
skills are up there.
Inevitably,
though, when B.J. Penn’s name is mentioned the world
begins to remind you of the way he gassed against Georges
St. Pierre and Matt Hughes, the latter fight of which he
was also suffering from an injury.
But
Penn didn’t look like he was about to gas against
Joe Stevenson in his last fight, now did he?
Sean
Sherk lost his UFC Lightweight Championship after testing
positive for performance enhancing drugs. Up until that
point, he was looking pretty unbelievable, as his 31-2-1
overall MMA record with eight (T)KO’s and 12 submission
victories would seem to attest to.
In the
end, Sherk is a cardio freak with awesome takedowns, takedown
defense, and power. He also possesses better striking than
people give him credit for, utilizing his stand up to get
into position to take his opponents down much like Randy
Couture utilizes his famed Greco- Roman clinch to do the
same.
But
Sherk’s problems have also been well- documented.
Despite having won 15 of his last 16 fights, he has been
unable to stop his last three opponents. On top of it all,
people are wondering if his famous cardio will take a hit
after testing positive for steroids.
In the
end, expect Sherk to be the same fighter we’ve become
accustomed to seeing. Though Penn will win the fight for
as long as it’s standing, don’t expect this
one to stay upright for very long as Sherk’s takedown
attempts will prove to be too much to avoid. And once this
fight hits the ground, expect Penn to score points by going
for submissions early on. Is it possible that he might win
the fight via submission in these initial stages?
Yes.
But if he doesn’t, expect the third round to be the
stanza to watch. If Penn has enough gas to win that round,
he should win the fight via decision. If not, this one will
go Sherk’s way as his cardio will win out in round
four and five. So. . .
It’s
a tough call, but Penn should win this one via decision
based on his recent commitment to being the best he can
be, if not by first or second round submission.
Perhaps
just as alluring as the B.J. Penn- Sean Sherk bout is Wanderlei
Silva’s second Octagon battle since his return
from PRIDE, this time against Keith Jardine.
The last time we saw Silva, he showed the heart we’ve
all become accustomed to seeing. However, he also looked
rather small next to Chuck Liddell.
Guess
what? Keith Jardine is a pretty big guy as well. Further,
he has a lot of power, is very tough, and utilizes his legs
like battering rams from a distance.
Perhaps
the last word from the former sentence is the key to this
fight. Distance. Wanderlei Silva is widely considered to
be awesome in the clinch and inside where his flurries can
be very damaging, if not unorthodox. But if Jardine can
keep him at a distance then the fight will go his way.
Forget
ground skills in this one. No one wants to take the fight
to the canvas.
This
is another tough call—aren’t they all?—
and Keith Jardine certainly could come through with a knockout
here. But Silva has been training hard—I mean hard—for
this one. And the last time Jardine got suckered into a
brawl against Houston Alexander, things didn’t go
well for him.
Figure
on Wanderlei Silva winning by knockout in the second round.
But don’t bet on this one.
In
another rather huge battle, Tito Ortiz,
perhaps in his last UFC fight, is set to take on
Lyoto Machida. Ortiz is still one of the best wrestlers
in the light heavyweight division, possessing awesome power
and some of the best takedowns, takedown defense, and ground
control in the division. Further, when he gets opponents
to the ground he tends to pound the daylights out of them.
But
recently, he’s been gassing late in fights. Could
that be due to injury, his new Hollywood lifestyle, or is
it simply an aberration?
From
a stand up perspective, Ortiz is good technically but probably
isn’t going to knock anyone out on his feet.
Lyoto
Machida is undefeated for a reason—he’s as technical
a striker and fighter as there is. Along with this, he has
elite stand up skills and is able to utilize his entire
body to score points while minimizing any damage that opponents
can do. Furthermore, he has enough power to put you to sleep
if you make a mistake.
On top
of it all, Machida has solid takedown defense and better
than average jiu jitsu skills.
Figure
that Ortiz will have enough to put Lyoto Machida on his
back in this one early. From there, we’re going to
find out a lot more about this man that trains with Anderson
Silva. Is he tough enough to survive the onslaught? You
never know until he does. But the best guess is that he
will be able to.
Then
the question becomes, will Ortiz tire, just as he did against
Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans, so that takedowns are
harder for him to come by?
Hard
to know, but the best guess right now is yes. Thus, expect
Machida to survive an early onslaught to win on his feet
by points later in the fight.
THE
REST
Wilson
Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic: Gouveia’s
knockout victory over Jason Lambert made me a believer.
Besides, he has more experience in big market events, as
this is Reljic’s Octagon debut.
Gouveia
wins via TKO in round three.
Antonio Mendes vs. Thiago Silva: Expect this to
be an outstanding fight. That said, Silva is one bad dude.
Thiago
Silva wins via TKO in round three.
Rameau
Thierry Sokoudjou vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura:
Nakamura is tough, but he’s just not as athletic as
his competitor.
Sokodjou
via unanimous decision.
Jon Koppenhaver vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida:
Koppenhaver is tough as nails. But he may be taking on a
guy here that’s just as tough with a little more skill.
Yoshiyuki
Yoshida wins via submission.
Rousimar Palhares vs. Ivan Salaverry:
Palhares is great on the ground. Salaverry is technically
strong everywhere. But I just have a feeling that losing
two of his last three will hurt Salaverry’s psyche
coming in.
Rousimar
Palhares wins via unanimous decision.
Dong-Hyun
Kim vs. Jason Tan:
Kim is supposed to be very good.
Dong-Hyun
Kim wins via TKO in round two.
Terry Etim vs. Rich Clementi:
Etim is very good. But Clementi is one tough hombre that’s
been fighting with a chip on his shoulder lately. Oh yeah,
and he’s also the better striker.
Clementi
wins via second round TKO.
Shane
Carwin vs. Christian Wellisch:
Tough call.
Shane
Carwin wins via TKO. |
