The UFC hosts a show in the home of the NHL's Penguins with a card decimated by injury, but still featuring the return of a fan favorite jumping weight classes. The card also has a showcase featherweight bout plus rising prospects in a number of important bouts.
What: UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Cowboy
Where: Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA.
When: Sunday, the three-fight Fight Pass card starts at 5:30 p.m. ET, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 preliminary card starts at 7 p.m. and the main card kicks off at 9 p.m.
Donald Cerrone vs. Alex Oliveira
It's just not clear to me where the Brazilian cowboy has any advantage. Cerrone is slightly undersized for the weight class, but not overly so relative to Oliveira. On the ground, the American is far more advanced than the Brazilian, which is also the case on the feet. If anything, this feels like a warm up fight for Cerrone's move to the new and bigger weight class, not a real test of the limits of Cerrone's abilities.
Pick: Cerrone
Derek Brunson vs. Roan Carneiro
Carneiro is massively improved and can put anyone to sleep with his vicious array of chokes, especially those he can set up from the front head lock position. Brunson is by no means so good relative to Carneiro that the idea of him being choked out is some sort of aberrant possibility, but he is athletic and does have good sprawls as well as defensive cage wrestling. As long as he doesn't put this fight on Carneiro's terms, it's his to lose.
Pick: Brunson
Cody Garbrandt vs. Augusto Mendes
Were it not for the short notice, I wouldn't know what to say. But since Mendes is coming in so late, it's hard to look past Garbrandt. His striking is being cleaned up by Brandon Gibson and his defensive wrestling should be enough to get the job done. Tanquinho does have decent takedowns, but the Team Alpha Male product seemingly has more than enough skills to keep the fight off the floor where his power punching can shine.
Pick: Garbrandt
Dennis Bermudez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
Kawajiri is something of a poor man's Bermudez at this point. 'The Menace' leaves himself open in ways that are inadvisable, but Kawajiri has been reduced to trying to win on control positions. Bermudez might have his faults, but this is a battle he should win handily. He's younger and frankly better even at the very areas where the Japanese fighter has excelled. I expect Bermudez to shut down Kawajiri's limited offense en route to letting his greater overall ability shine.
Pick: Bermudez
It's just hard to know what to make of Riggs at this point. At his peak, he was a top prospect with ferocious ground and pound and a well-rounded game. Now he's a fighter older than his years with innumerable injuries. I could see Camozzi getting two rounds taken from him if he's not careful, but my guess is Riggs will come undone at some point before the final bell.
Pick: Camozzi
James Krause vs. Shane Campbell
If Krause makes a questionable decision, he'll end up striking with Campbell. That doesn't mean he'll lose necessarily, but that's putting the fight on terms that don't benefit him. If the win over Daron Cruickshank told us anything, it's that Krause has what it needs to mix it up on the feet just long enough to lord his grappling skills over his opposition. This one could be dicey at times given Campbell's prowess, but Krause is the more skilled fighter and skills win fights.
Pick: Krause
From the preliminary card:
Alex Garcia def. Sean Strickland
Oluwale Bamgbose def. Daniel Sarafian
Leonardo Augusto Guimarães def. Anthony Smith
Jonavin Webb def. Nathan Coy
Marion Reneau def. Ashlee Evans-Smith
Lauren Murphy def. Kelly Faszholz
Shamil Abdurakhimov def. Anthony Hamilton