UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs Brown
The upcoming Robbie Lawler vs Matt Brown bout will determine the next challenger for the UFC welterweight title and secure a date with Johnny Hendricks in late 2014. While Lawler is no stranger to the title picture, Brown is, but has also been on the longest active winning streak in the UFC, by fighters not holding a belt. Brown has been winning fights by KO and/or breaking opponents will by relentless pressure in spectacular fashion. While I like the thought of a Brown vs Hendricks matchup, I do not anticipate Brown overwhelming or knocking out a veteran like Lawler. Lawler looked great against Hendricks and was the victim of his own passiveness to let Hendricks into the fight in late exchanges, and, taunting Hendricks by inviting him to hit him with his best shot. Lawler was able to show the limits of Hendricks standup when the home run punch doesn't work.
An argument can be made that Hendricks had an injured bicep that required surgery and dug deep to get the win; he also has time on his side to finally let being the champion sink in and watch this weekends upcoming bout, see adjustments Lawler makes, and develop a strategy moving forward into his first title defence. In the end however, I do not think it will be enough to get a second win over Lawler who will be settled into his new home in the welterweight division after spending most of his career at middleweight.
I predict in this weekends upcoming fight, Brown will come out aggressive looking to land a big punch and put pressure on Lawlor, I think Lawler will also expect this from his opponent and weather the storm. Brown may have Lawler in a bit of trouble early, maybe rock Lawler, but, after the opening minutes, Brown chances of winning tick away along with the time left in the round. If Lawlor doesn't catch Brown early with a well timed punch behind good defence in the first round, it will only be a matter of time before Brown gasses out, gets the lights knocked out, end of a good run. My prediction is Lawler by TKO in the 3rd.
Interesting co-main event that I think will be the best fight of the night. I expect Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to give Anthony "Rumble" Johnson all he can handle. I can see the fight going either fighter's way, if Johnson can keep Nogueira at a distance, he may be able to put him away with one shot. Longer the fight goes, and especially if it hits the mat, better chances of getting a submission for Nogueira. On this night though, I think the momentum of Johnson will be too much for a ring rusty Nogueira. I predict Johnson rocks Nogueira and finishs the job by ground and pound TKO, in the 2nd.