Ric's Picks: UFC 170

Thanks to Sean Knowles for the design.

We successfully made it to week number two of this wagering challenge. If you’re not familiar with me or the rules of our game, no sweat; take a look back at our debut post and get yourself up to speed.

All caught up? Great. I’ll briefly recap last week’s wagers and then get right into this weekend’s card.

UFC Fight Night 36 Recap

25 units on Lyoto Machida (points handicap -5.5) at +115 to win 28.75 units (WIN)

This fight played out pretty much as I described, with Machida dictating the pace and controlling the exchanges from the outside. My largest bet was a successful one.

10 units on Yuri Alcantara/Wilson Reis under 2.5 rounds at +120 to win 12 units (LOSS)

Yuri Alcantara’s performance on Saturday was not indicative of what I’ve come to expect from him, but it would be a disservice to Wilson Reis’ toughness after being dropped twice to say anything other than bravo.

5 units on Charles Oliveira/Andy Ogle under 1.5 rounds at +120 to win 6 units (LOSS)

With Charles Oliveira having Andy Ogle’s back for the entire first round, I thought this bet would be a sure winner. As the fight went on, it was clear that Ogle was not just going to break. In fact, he had his moments in what most considered a squash match.

5 units on a parlay of Joe Proctor at -225, Ronaldo Souza at -550, and Lyoto Machida at -235 to win 7.17 units (WIN)

I saw Proctor, Souza, and Machida as relatively safe plays in the style match-up department, leading to this winning parlay.

3 units on a parlay of Albert Tumenov at -210, Joe Proctor at -225, Yuri Alcantara at -270, Charles Oliveira at -650, Ronaldo Souza at -550, and Lyoto Machida at -235 to win 14.04 units (LOSS)

Albert Tumenov was good in his UFC debut, but not good enough to defeat the larger and better prepared Ildemar Alcantara. Just missed this one.

UFC Fight Night 36 Result: +17.92 Units

Total After One Event: 117.92 Units

It was a positive night, but would have been much sweeter with a win from Tumenov. On a card where I didn’t really love any plays, specifically underdogs, I’ll take it. I am, however, more wary of the ‘Under’ prop this week after going goose egg.

Let’s talk UFC 170, shall we?

10 units on Daniel Cormier wins inside the distance at -140 to win 7.14 units

If you’ve ever tuned into The MMA Hour -- watch it every Monday at 1 p.m. ET, right here on MMAFighting.com -- there’s a chance you’ve seen me discuss Cormier. If not, suffice it to say I think he’s supremely talented – one of the two or three best heavyweights AND light heavyweights in the world.

Patrick Cummins was serving lattes a week ago.

10 units on Alexis Davis at -145 to win 6.9 units

When this match-up was first announced, I leaned ever so slightly toward Jessica Eye. I’ve underrated Davis in the past and thought Eye would be able to get in and out with her boxing en route to a decision.

After a positive drug test and the distractions that Eye has undoubtedly faced, I’ve shifted toward Davis in a big way. While I do believe a finish is possible, specifically by way of submission, Davis will most likely be able to mix her solid striking with aggressive grappling to win a decision.

If Eye is off her game, Davis will not give her any room to breathe.

10 units on Robert Whittaker at +115 to win 11.5 units

I’ve gone back and forth many times while trying to pick a winner in the fight between Stephen Thompson and Whittaker. Ultimately, I sided with Whittaker, whom I feel will outpace Thompson (especially late) and use his crisp boxing to earn a decision. Whittaker has been rocked in the past, which causes concern, but his ability to recover is impressive. It’ll be a close one, as the odds indicate.

That’s it for straight bets, but I like a few parlays:

5 units on a parlay of Ronda Rousey wins by submission (-155) and Robert Whitaker wins by decision (+397) to win 35.88 units

I’ve already discussed Whittaker, so I’ll talk about Rousey here. The oddsmakers are giving Sara McMann a lot more respect than what I have found to be the fans’ consensus – that this is just another first-round armbar for Rousey. I think she will ultimately be able to submit McMann, but I see this being her toughest test yet.

5 units on a parlay of Ronda Rousey wins by submission (-155) and Rory MacDonald wins by decision (-116) to win 10.32 units

Can MacDonald safely out-point Demian Maia? As good as Maia has looked at welterweight, the answer is yes. MacDonald’s takedown defense is rock solid, so he will be able to control where the fight plays out by circling and pumping his jab to prevent Maia from mounting sufficient offense against the superior striker. It won’t be as frustrating as the performance against Jake Ellenberger, but I’m not expecting Rory to obliterate Maia either.

5 units on a parlay of Ronda Rousey wins by submission (-155) and Mike Pyle/TJ Waldburger doesn’t go to decision (-180) to win 7.8 units

Waldburger has simply been knocked out too many times for me to look past it. If Pyle can avoid Waldburger’s submissions (Pyle’s not too shabby on the ground himself), I like him to land something that finishes the fight. But Pyle’s chin has been checked as well recently, and at 38 years old, it wouldn’t shock me to see Waldburger on the other end of a knockout punch. Either way, I do not see this one reaching the cards.

At Risk: 45 Units

Potential Profit: 79.54 Units

DISLCAIMER: I do not recommend betting units that resemble the amounts wagered in this competition. Due to its nature, I am attempting to profit at an advanced rate and risking significantly more than is advisable for proper bankroll management. Please evaluate the breakdowns provided and adjust accordingly.

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