A lot of you may rightfully be wondering what this is, so let's get that out of the way at the top: I'm @NewYorkRic, Ariel Helwani's sidekick on The MMA Hour -- watch it every Monday at 1 p.m. ET, right here on MMAFighting.com -- and I fancy myself a betting man. In order to prove my worth, Ariel challenged me (again) to turn 100 betting units into 400 betting units (using real MMA odds) by UFC 172 on April 26th. I'm not one to turn down a challenge, so here we are.
Starting with UFC Fight Night 36, I'm going to chronicle my betting picks for each event. Feel free to play along at home and submit your own picks in the comments below.
Without further ado:
25 units on Lyoto Machida (points handicap -5.5) at +115 to win 28.75 units
I see this fight playing out on the feet at a slow, deliberate pace -- one that favors Machida. If both fighters remain on the outside, Machida will have the advantage and I can envision a scenario where he ends the fight (thus the handicap bet, which pays if Machida finishes the fight OR wins a judges' decision by 6 or more points) with an accurate flurry.
Gegard Mousasi has a fantastic jab, but Machida will not be on the end of it and Mousasi doesn't stand in the pocket to aggressively trade like the fighters who typically give Machida trouble -- Phil Davis head-scratcher aside.
10 units on Yuri Alcantara/Wilson Reis under 2.5 rounds at +120 to win 12 units
I believe Alcantara will finish this fight, but the odds on that aren't significantly better than simply picking it to be over in under 2.5 rounds. Wilson Reis will most likely look to smother him for a decision, but I'm covered if something wacky happens and Reis gets the finish.
It should not take long for "Do Bronx" to dispose of Andy Ogle and this bet pays more than taking Oliveira inside the distance.
Let's round this out with two parlays:
3 units on a parlay of Albert Tumenov at -210, Joe Proctor at -225, Yuri Alcantara at -270, Charles Oliveira at -650, Ronaldo Souza at -550, and Lyoto Machida at -235 to win 14.04 units
Total Units Risked: 48
Total Units to Win: 67.96