I am a huge Chael P. Sonnen fan.
That said, I have a hard time visualizing how he beats Evans. Evans is the quicker / more explosive fighter. He has better boxing / kickboxing. Their wrestling backgrounds in my mind nullify each other. I give a slight edge in cardio / gas tank to Sonnen.
Chael definitely starts quickly, as a matter of fact I think he has one of the quickest, if not the quickest starts in either weight class he competes in. He goes right after it right away. Perhaps he can overwhelm Evans in the opening seconds with some dirty boxing and a quick take down, but I'm sure Evans is prepared for this. I believe the key to victory for Sonnen is to take it to Evans from the opening second and never let off the gas.
I will say, I am picking Sonnen to win this fight. The way I see it playing out, Sonnen is absolutely relentless with take downs and slowly wears out Evans. When it eventually gets to the ground I see Sonnen winning that war of attrition with ground and pound and maybe, just maybe slipping in a sub (ala Stann / Rua) in the later rounds when Evans slows down due to exhaustion.
I will go out on a limb (pun intended) and call it for Sonnen, midway through the third round by submission.
I'm sure many disagree. How do you see it playing out?